Coastal Network Inundation and Connectivity Analysis Tool

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This project was originally designed to inform the Virginia Department of Transportation’s (VDOT) earlier efforts to address resilience in the transportation network, the Coastal Network Inundation and Connectivity Analysis Tool (CNICA Tool) depicts the impacts of flooding on road networks as well as natural ecosystems by leveraging geospatial analysis, elevation surface data and tide gauge data. The tool, through a partnership between the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) and the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), supports the development of proactive strategies for understanding and addressing sea level rise, land subsidence and recurrent flooding impacts on existing and planned road infrastructure and to assess how that infrastructure will impact natural ecosystems in Virginia’s coastal zone as the climate changes. The tool can be used by coastal communities and others to model conditions from the current day to the end of the century to identify road segments at risk of being cut impacted by flooding. The CNICA Tool is built on consistent data sets and assumptions by other entities. The Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR) and VDOT have continued to advance their resilience efforts, including the development of similar tools that can also be used by stakeholders. Ensuring that the CNICA Tool is fundamentally aligned with these other tools will allow state, regional, and local officials to collaborate and make consistent decisions. The project can be divided into two major areas of focus:

1. Climate adaptation of transportation infrastructure: VDOT Facility Access and Hospital Access

VIMS, through collaboration with VDOT, utilized GIS tools, elevation surface data, and tide gauge data to generate results for a tool to identify for road segments subject to current or future flooding by tidal waters between 2020 and beyond 2100. This was accomplished by assessing VDOT and local maintained roads within FEMA Flood Hazard Zones, conducting road network and recurrent flood frequency analysis to evaluate current and predicted future flooding to major roads and community infrastructure, creating locality-based flooding duration and frequency maps to assess impacts on existing roads due to tidal flooding events.

2. Ecosystem impacts of transportation infrastructure: Species Habitat

VIMS also developed and integrated a comprehensive set of data layers to support decision-making related to species habitats, anadromous fish migration patterns, marsh migration due to sea level rise, and other ecological and infrastructural factors. This was achieved by collaborating with state partners to compile species habitat information and by developing high-resolution species distribution models. These models depict current habitat areas within the Tidewater region for 32 rare, threatened, and endangered species, as well as for migratory and marsh specialist bird species. Additionally, VIMS forecasted potential future habitats under various sea level rise scenarios. The Species Habitat Viewer enables the assessment of existing and predicted local land use changes and transportation infrastructure that may conflict with future species habitats due to shifting proximities between 2020 and 2100. This tool also helps identify site-specific, proactive mitigation and compensation strategies. Complementing the habitat viewer is AlosApp, an application that predicts the migration status of four anadromous fish species throughout the Bay. AlosApp uses real-time environmental data to inform time-of-year restrictions on in-stream work.