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This project was originally designed to inform the Virginia Department of Transportation’s
(VDOT) earlier efforts to address resilience in the transportation network, the Coastal Network
Inundation and Connectivity Analysis Tool (CNICA Tool) depicts the impacts of flooding on road
networks as well as natural ecosystems by leveraging geospatial analysis, elevation surface data and
tide gauge data. The tool, through a partnership between the Virginia Institute of Marine Science
(VIMS) and the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), supports the development of proactive
strategies for understanding and addressing sea level rise, land subsidence and recurrent flooding
impacts on existing and planned road infrastructure and to assess how that infrastructure will
impact natural ecosystems in Virginia’s coastal zone as the climate changes. The tool can be used by
coastal communities and others to model conditions from the current day to the end of the century to
identify road segments at risk of being cut impacted by flooding.
The CNICA Tool is built on consistent data sets and assumptions by other entities. The Virginia
Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR) and VDOT have continued to advance their resilience
efforts, including the development of similar tools that can also be used by stakeholders. Ensuring
that the CNICA Tool is fundamentally aligned with these other tools will allow state, regional, and
local officials to collaborate and make consistent decisions.
The project can be divided into two major
areas
of focus:
1. Climate adaptation of transportation infrastructure: VDOT Facility Access and Hospital Access
VIMS, through collaboration with VDOT, utilized GIS tools, elevation surface data, and tide
gauge data to generate results for a tool to identify for road segments subject to current or future
flooding by tidal waters between 2020 and beyond 2100. This was accomplished by assessing VDOT and
local maintained roads within FEMA Flood Hazard Zones, conducting road network and recurrent flood
frequency analysis to evaluate current and predicted future flooding to major roads and community
infrastructure, creating locality-based flooding duration and frequency maps to assess impacts on
existing roads due to tidal flooding events.
2. Ecosystem impacts of transportation infrastructure: Species Habitat
VIMS also developed and integrated a comprehensive set of data layers to support decision-making
related to species habitats, anadromous fish migration patterns, marsh migration due to sea level
rise, and other ecological and infrastructural factors. This was achieved by collaborating with
state partners to compile species habitat information and by developing high-resolution species
distribution models. These models depict current habitat areas within the Tidewater region for 32
rare, threatened, and endangered species, as well as for migratory and marsh specialist bird
species. Additionally, VIMS forecasted potential future habitats under various sea level rise
scenarios.
The Species Habitat Viewer enables the assessment of existing and predicted local land use changes
and transportation infrastructure that may conflict with future species habitats due to shifting
proximities between 2020 and 2100. This tool also helps identify site-specific, proactive mitigation
and compensation strategies. Complementing the habitat viewer is AlosApp, an application that
predicts the migration status of four anadromous fish species throughout the Bay. AlosApp uses
real-time environmental data to inform time-of-year restrictions on in-stream work.